July 2026: thin loads, $5 diesel, and a rate cut

Three things happened this month. RV production hit its worst month in over a decade. Diesel went to $5.13. And my rate got cut.

Any one of those is a bad month. All three at once is something else. Here are the numbers, including mine.

The loads: worst month in over a decade

May is the most recent RVIA number — June hadn’t posted when I wrote this. 22,900 units, down 18.7% from last May. That’s the weakest production month the industry has had in more than ten years.

Towables took it worst again, down 21.3%. That’s the bread and butter. The motorhome bright spot is fading too — up 13% in April, up only 2.2% in May. Type B vans are still climbing, Type A coaches actually fell 13%.

The Summer forecast calls for around 314,000 units for the year, down about 8% from 2025. Nobody who models this expects the fall to fix it.

The fuel: $5.13 and it wasn’t gradual

Diesel hit $5.134 national average the week ending July 20. Three weeks before that it was $4.58. It’s up $1.32 a gallon from a year ago.

This one isn’t the usual summer bump. Russia halted diesel exports, there’s trouble around Hormuz again, and refineries have closed for good — capacity that isn’t coming back. Refining margins hit records. That matters because a spike caused by refining doesn’t fall as fast as one caused by crude. I’d plan on expensive fuel sticking around rather than betting on it dropping in a few weeks.

And then they cut the rate

Here’s the part you won’t find in an industry report. In July the Keystone driver rate at Bennett went from roughly $2.22 to $1.96 a mile on the West Coast. That’s an 11.7% cut. I don’t know yet what it did out of Indiana.

I’m not going to pretend I know the reasoning. But the timing tells you something. Shipments are at a ten-year low, which means there are more trucks than loads, which means the trucks have nowhere else to go. Rate sheets get rewritten when everybody knows that.

Now put the rate cut and the fuel next to each other, because that’s how it actually lands:

A 12% rate cut turns into a 21% cut in what’s actually left once fuel takes its bite. On a 1,200-mile run that’s about $470 gone compared to the same load last summer. If you’re running closer to 8 MPG loaded, it’s worse — about 24%.

Same truck. Same miles. Same work. Different paycheck.

As a driver I have no control over rates. I’m the tail when the dog wags.

Why I can’t just go find a better rate

The usual advice when rates drop is “negotiate” or “ask for a fuel surcharge.” That advice is written for somebody with leverage. Leased RV haulers don’t have any, and it’s worth being clear about why, because it’s three things locking together, not one:

The lease is exclusive. Under 49 CFR 376.12 the carrier has possession and control of my truck for the term of the lease. That’s the federal piece, and it’s not a loophole anybody’s finding a way around.

No authority, no load boards. Without my own MC number and my own insurance, broker freight isn’t legally available to me. So the “just run something else this week” option isn’t there.

And the part most people miss: even if I went and got my own authority tomorrow, I still couldn’t call Keystone. The freight is contracted manufacturer to carrier. Keystone contracts with Bennett — not with me. So the standard escape hatch, go get your own authority, doesn’t open this particular door. That’s the real box.

The paid miles game

While we’re talking about things drivers don’t control, here’s one more that costs money quietly.

Different manufacturers and transport companies calculate paid miles differently, and I’ve never once seen it adjusted in the driver’s favor. The version worth knowing about: a load gets routed so you’re running the freeway — longer, but that’s the sane way to move a 40-foot trailer — and the company pays you on the short route anyway. If you want the difference you have to prove you ran the longer road. Most guys don’t bother, and that mileage stays in the company’s pocket.

To be fair: Bennett doesn’t do this. Credit where it’s due. But several outfits do, and if you’re getting recruited somewhere with a rate that looks a nickel better, ask how they calculate paid miles before you sign anything. A good rate on short-routed miles can pay worse than a lower rate paid honestly.

What’s actually left to control

I can’t set the rate. So the levers are the ones nobody sets for me:

Know what a mile really costs you now. Not what it cost in March. Fuel alone moved 13 cents a mile, and the rate moved 26. If you’re still carrying a per-mile number in your head from the spring, it’s wrong by a lot, and you can’t tell a good load from a bad one with a wrong number.

Deadhead is the killer. At $5.13, empty miles run about 43 cents a mile in fuel alone. A 300-mile reposition to grab a load is a $128 decision before you’ve earned a dime. Judge a run door to door, including the empty, not just the paid miles.

Capture the cost side. Every gallon at $5.13 is a bigger deduction, but only if it’s written down. Same with nights away — per diem is real money and a slow month is exactly when you’ve got the evening to log it. The guys scrambling in April are the ones who let a stretch like this go untracked. Can’t control the rate. Can control whether I hand extra money to the IRS on top of it.

Post your rates

Here’s the thing that would actually change something.

Rates are treated like a secret, and that only works one direction. The company knows what everybody pays. The driver knows what he got. If more of us said out loud what we’re being paid — what lane, what manufacturer, what rate, and how the miles are counted — we’d all negotiate from a better place, or at least know when we’re being told a story.

So I’ll go first. West Coast Keystone, $2.22 down to $1.96 in July 2026, Bennett. Paid miles calculated straight.

If you’re hauling, send me what you’re running for — lane, manufacturer, rate, and whether they pay the route you actually drive. I’ll post what comes in. No names attached if you don’t want them, and I won’t print anything I can’t stand behind. The freight will come back eventually. Knowing what it should pay when it does is on us.